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Beijing, January 2, 2024 - With the gradual recovery of society and the gradual return of economic activities to the right track after the epidemic, China's PC market will also usher in a recovery. Among them, whether it is the improvement of industry demand or the promotion of new technologies such as AIPC, it will inject new vitality into the PC industry.

For the future development trend of the overall PC market, the main pull and market segment changes, IDC summarized and gave the top ten insights of the Chinese PC market in 2024, the specific content is as follows:

Insight 1: The Chinese PC market will resume growth in 2024

With the gradual stabilization of policies and the economy, IDC expects the overall PC market to improve in 2024, and the overall PC market shipments in 2024 will increase by 3.8% compared to 2023. Among them, the first half of 2024 is greatly affected by volatility, and the shipment is expected to increase by 1.5% year-on-year; The PC market will grow by 5.6% year-on-year in the second half of 2024.

Insight 2: In 2024, China's AIPC will account for 55% of the total PC

2024 will be the first year of rapid development of AIPC, and it is expected that AIPC will account for 55% of the overall PC market in 2024, and 85% in 2027. Among them, due to lightweight IT deployment and cloud demand, AIPC will grow the fastest in the SME market, which will exceed 60% by 2024. The consumer market, driven by game scenes and learning and creation scenes, will also have a rapid development, reaching 55.4% in 2024; Large enterprises are affected by security and other factors, and the initial deployment is relatively slow, but it is expected that by 2027, AIPC will account for 76.8% of the large customer market.

Insight 3: AIPC will drive and lead the diversification of terminal ecology

With the landing of the AIPC large model, the PC-based AI assistance capability will better help users optimize life, learning, work, entertainment and other aspects, and will be more involved in some of the users' heavy productivity application needs and complex functional needs. At the same time, it will also drive the ecological expansion of other related products to achieve a better integration of AI assistance between different products. Provide deeper, more accurate and faster responses. Therefore, AIPC will promote the ecological diversification of the brand in the consumer and commercial market for a long time, and seizing the opportunity of AIPC's large model will become an important direction to promote the development of the brand.

Insight 4: Discrete manufacturing and professional services will drive workstation demand, and the workstation market is expected to grow 10.3% in 2024

The growth of desktop workstations is driven by the demand for image rendering in the automotive and electronics industries in the discrete manufacturing industry; Procurement of professional services represented by the Internet is expected to begin to recover next year, to a certain extent, resulting in the growth of mobile workstation shipments. Over the next four years, the workstation market will grow at a compound rate of 13.1%.

Insight five: The waist city consumption classification has been further intensified

T3, T4 and other waist city consumption classification further intensified. The central and eastern waist cities are more attractive for the migration of young people, and the growth rate of the consumer market is expected to catch up with some T2 cities; The industrial structure of the small and medium-sized enterprise market is accelerating to the service industry and manufacturing industry, such as Taizhou, Quanzhou, Xianyang city, Heze City and other cities in 2024 PC shipment growth will exceed 10%.

Insight 6: The government education and large enterprise PC market has begun to recover after two consecutive years of decline, and is expected to grow 6.7% in 2024

In 2024, driven by the replacement of laboratories related to colleges and vocational schools and the impact of economic recovery, the education market is expected to grow by 10.3%. The government industry is expected to grow by 13.4%, and local governments are expected to replace large batches of centralized procurement. Large enterprises increased by 1.7%, and the recovery was slower than that of politics and education, and the growth mainly appeared in banking, energy, transportation, public utilities and other industries. By product, the workstation market is expected to grow by 15.7%, with more significant growth in mobile workstations. From the perspective of competition situation, in the finance, telecommunications, energy, public utilities and other industries, the competition of small brands has intensified, and the long tail effect has appeared.

Insight 7: AI terminalization drives medium and long-term procurement needs of smes

With the continuous breakthrough and application of digital technology, the digital economy is booming worldwide, and digital technology provides new opportunities and development space for small and medium-sized enterprises, prompting more and more small and medium-sized enterprises to carry out digital transformation. With the rapid development of AI models, AI computing power, and the requirements of data security and privacy protection, AI terminalization has emerged as a necessity and feasibility. It will promote terminals from traditional productivity tools to intelligent assistant services, providing a new user experience in a multi-scenario collaborative working environment, bringing innovation and efficiency to small and medium-sized enterprises, while ensuring that data privacy is properly protected. PC as a basic office tool procurement demand will continue to grow. The compound growth of small and medium enterprises over the next five years will be 8.4%.

Insight 8: The deployment and promotion of enterprise cloud has accelerated, and the proportion of low-end PCS in large political and educational enterprises has increased

With the growth of transmission speed and computing power requirements, as well as the further improvement of management requirements and flexibility requirements, enterprise cloud deployment has become a relatively convenient and efficient solution, and the number of cloud deployment in the political and educational markets and large enterprises has increased. At the same time, the use of local PC demand and funding priority will be affected to a certain extent, some local PC products will be transferred to the low-end, the overall proportion of low-end PC in large political and religious enterprises will increase.

Insight # 9: Value for money will be the deciding factor for most consumers when they shop

According to IDC consumer group data, the proportion of smart autonomous users will continue to increase, and the focus of this group of people is on the cost performance of the product. Performance and price have become the focus of consumers' shopping. As the performance of products continues to strengthen, consumer demand is more easily met, and pricing has become the focus of brands.

Insight 10: In 2024, overall PC prices will still show a K-shaped trend, but market segment prices will decline

On the one hand, with the launch of a new series of processors in 2024, the inventory of the old generation of CPU products still exists and the price has declined, especially for thin and light products, the price will further decline; On the other hand, from the demand side, the demand for light and medium PC users will also change to more cost-effective lightweight notebook products. Although the increase in price sensitivity leads to a decline in the average unit price of products, the proportion of high-performance notebooks will also increase, the demand for games will remain, and the new demand for AIPC will continue to generate an important pull for the high-end PC market, and the market share of high-performance PC products will also increase. The overall PC market price will continue to show a K-shaped trend in 2024.