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Article source: AVC Industry Insight

With the passing of 2023, the dust has settled in China's notebook online retail market. At the beginning of 2023, China's notebook online retail market is in the trough period after the epidemic, and the market size remains low. In the middle of the year, with the extensive rollout of new hardware, the market sales led by the game began to gradually reverse, and the market sales showed signs of rebound in the second half of the year. However, throughout the year, China's notebook online retail market is still running at a low level, and consumers who change machines during the epidemic have not yet ushered in a replacement cycle, and it still takes time for the market to recover.

Looking forward to 2024, China's notebook online retail market ushered in a year of adjustment, the launch of a new generation of CPU and other hardware, the outbreak of AIPC and other hot spots, 2024 notebook online retail market is expected to stop falling and increase.

In 2024, the domestic economy is still in the recovery stage, consumer demand is gradually recovering, and consumer confidence is also gradually recovering, but the electronic consumer market is still in the trough period, because the mobile office demand during the epidemic period led to a sharp rise in notebook computer consumption in 2021 and 2020, the market is in a weakening period, and the market is difficult to rebound sharply in the short term. According to AVC Revo, China's notebook online retail market is expected to sell 9.543 million units in 2024, an increase of 1.4%.

Overall sales trend of China's notebook online retail market in 2021-2024

Data Source: AVC REVO Unit: Units, %

Game Market Outlook in 2024:

In 2023, the game market will face challenges, and in 2024, with the recovery of demand, the further spread of the superimposed RTX40 series graphics card models in the market and the advent of the 14th-generation CPU to promote the price reduction of the 13th-generation CPU models will promote the expansion of the game market. AVC Revo expects that In 2024, the total sales volume of China's notebook online retail market was 1.569 million units, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year.

Sales trend of notebook games in China's online retail market from 2021 to 2024

Data Source: AVC REVO Unit: Units, %

Market outlook for high-resolution models in 2024:

2023 High resolution models (resolution ≥QHD) growth slowed down but continued the momentum of expansion. The market is expected to grow further in 2024. On the one hand, the traditional QHD high resolution upgrade to 2.8K and 4K and other higher resolutions, to achieve the upgrade iteration in the high resolution market; On the other hand, the traditional FHD in the low-end market is also gradually replaced by QHD, and the upgrading of the two directions makes the high-resolution market continue to have vitality and continue to grow in the downturn environment. According to AVC Revo (AVC Revo), the sales of high-resolution models in China's notebook online retail market in 2024 will be 4.309 million units, an increase of 10.4%.

Sales trend of high-resolution models in China's notebook online retail market in 2021-2024

Data Source: AVC REVO Unit: Units, %

2024 Light and light models market outlook:

In 2023, the light and light model market is in the trough after the overdraft consumption of the epidemic, and the market lacks growth momentum. In 2024, with the support of new hardware and AIPC, it is expected to gradually recover, but the overall market trend is still difficult to shake. AVC Revo estimates that 4.827 million units of thin and light models will be sold in China's online notebook retail market in 2024, down 6.4% year on year.

The sales trend of the online retail market in 2021-2021-2021

Data Source: AVC REVO Unit: Units, %

2024 OLED and MiniLED models market outlook:

With Asustek's long-term layout in OLED notebooks, other brands such as Lenovo have also begun to deepen the layout of OLED models, and its main office model small new series will also be optional OLED on the AI new machine in 2024. According to Overiwo estimates that in 2024, the sales of OLED models in China's notebook online retail market will reach 482,000 units, an increase of 25.2%.

The MiniLED models are still mainly Apple models, and the sales volume of other brands is relatively small. Due to its high pricing, the brand planning defines most of the MiniLED models as ultra-high-end models. For example, after MSI released its flagship MiniLED model at CES 2023, it also plans to launch 4K 120Hz 18-inch MiniLED flagship model in 2024. In the future, as Apple turns to OLED technology, the market size of MiniLED models can be predicted to shrink further, but at present, the brand will not relax its positioning of ultra-high-end flagship models.

Hot spot 1 in 2024: The mobile version of the 14-generation core CPU is about to be listed, and the differentiated market is expected to benefit

At the end of 2023, the 14-generation core CPU desktop version is officially listed, and the mobile version of the product has also been shipped to the brand factory, Lenovo and Acer and other manufacturers have begun to produce 14-generation core CPU notebook models, which are expected to be officially launched after the CES exhibition in early 2024.

According to the information that has been disclosed, compared with the desktop version of the 14th generation of core CPU compared with the previous generation did not adopt a new process and new architecture only to improve the frequency is different, the mobile version of the 14th generation of core CPU from design to performance have significant changes and improvements, in the case of a significant increase in operating frequency power consumption is significantly reduced, the new design will bring significant productivity improvement.

The mobile version of the 14 generation core CPU upgrade direction focused on productivity improvement, limited improvement for the game, and because the graphics card is still RTX40 series, the game upgrade is mainly in the power consumption reduction and other aspects, it is expected that the 14 generation core CPU game model will still be based on high-end products, and then gradually down, and in the thin and light office model market ushered in the outbreak.

According to AVC Revo (AVC Revo), the online retail market in 2024, gaming models, high-resolution models and thin and light models are expected to benefit from growth.

Hot spot two in 2024: The first year of AI is coming, and AIPC will drive the replacement trend

In 2024, AIPC will become another major development direction in the future, in terms of hardware, with the continuous improvement of performance and the expansion of computing power, localized AI platforms will become possible, and brands will begin to empower traditional laptops to achieve a new generation of AIPC products that combine localized personal computing power models +AI applications + traditional laptop hardware. Although cloud AI has tended to be perfect at present, taking into account issues such as information security and privacy risks, individuals and enterprises are more inclined to localized AI processing models, and localized AI models can be closer to the user's environment, creating an environment closer to the needs of AI learning iteration. At present, AIPC has the advantages of personalization, openness, privacy, portability, etc. With the development of AI toward localization, AIPC has also become the main direction of notebook computer development in recent years, such as Lenovo, HP, Honor and MSI and other brands have plans to launch new AIPC models in mid-2024, realizing the transformation from AI software to hardware terminals. Enter the AI market quickly.

According to AVC Revo, 2024 will become the beginning of the year of AIPC, of which AIPC notebook will also benefit from growth, while the Chinese market is about to enter the replacement cycle, benefit AI upgrade is expected to accelerate the replacement cycle, 2024 AI notebook market penetration will come to 34.2% and continue to grow. It is expected to grow to 52.9 percent by the end of 2027.